Thursday, 26 May 2016

Why UCL is Atletico’s to lose

                                Atletico Madrid players celebrating after scoring against Barcelona in the second leg of the Champions League title (Photo/Courtesyibtimes).

Interestingly, one of the rare UEFA Champions League finals that no one ever saw coming at some point in the season. 10-times champions Real Madrid will be lining up against their Spanish and city rivals Atletico Madrid in Milan on Saturday night, a repeat of the 2014 finals. Previous meetings between these two sides have always sparked tension among players with hash tackles and flashes of cards being produced including inevitable redcards. Managers also get involved at certain incidences with the players especially Diego Simeone who has largely shaped his team. At the end, one team will have to fight hard to win or produce a draw which has also dominated most of their encounters.
To many, a Barcelona-Bayern final looked inevitable unless the two were slotted along the same path. But this is football, where surprises are never shot of display. Well, Saturday’s final will project nothing less than an enticing encounter between two rivals who have all reasons to be crowned champions. However, looking at both teams, my scorecard would without doubt be in favour of Diego Dimeone men.

Atletico have faced enough test
To become a champion you have to knock a champion, this is a common phrase in the game that at least gives players a morale-boosting performance when they face other opponents especially after edging past big challenges. Atletico Madrid knocked out defending champions Barcelona in the quarterfinal stage. Their next mountain was Germany Champions Bayern Munich in the semi-final which they took down without fears to book another final spot in the competition. This is in contrary to Zinedine Zidane’s charges who sailed through minor opponents in Roma, Wolfsburg and Manchester City enroute to the final.
Although beating Barca and Bayern is not a guarantee of any success in the final, truth be told that Diego Simeone has learnt a lot and endured a lot to become a winner in those four games in the two-legged ties. He knows what it takes to frustrate one of the game’s best players with his crafted defensive set-up. Not even the holy trinity of MSN (Messi, Suarez and Neymar) could come up with a solution to the Argentine’s plan. Not to forget the king of Tiki Taka, Pep Guardiola who only had to watch helplessly and in despair as his team faced elimination from the only tournament he has not won with the German champions.
Real’s enroute to the final does not in any way prove their worth this season, having in mind that an Arsenal team or a struggling Chelsea could easily have made it to the final through the same path. But a final is always decided in normal 90 minutes and there is no away goal rule to count on in this situation.

Simeone’s record against Real
Diego Simeone has lost only once in the last 10 games against the Los Blancos, and this in some way gives him a cutting age ahead of the final showdown. Despite boasting an impressive record over their city rivals, there is one particular area Simeone has not done to his perfection, this is in the champions league. Real overcame Atletico 4-1 in after 120 minutes of play during the 2014 final. The tie ended in a 1-1 draw thanks to a late Sergio Ramos equalizing header before Carlo Ancelotti’s side by then rallied to net three more securing their 10th record UCL title. To Atletico fans, it was something similar to grabbing a prey from a hunter who had taken a whole day chasing his target, you can guess how it feels. The following season provided a great platform for Atletico to revenge when the two were paired in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately, the plan failed yet again as Real matched to the last four with a 1-0 aggregate.
Since then the two have met twice in La Liga, starting with a 1-1 draw at Vicente Calderon on October last year followed by Atleti’s 1-0 win over Real at Santiago Bernabeu on February this year. Perhaps the Los Blancos may feel superior in European platform over their neighbours but Zidane will definitely be going for his first win over Simeone since taking charge of Real earlier this year. On the other side, the Argentine will be looking to amend his mistakes this time round and lift his first UCL title with the club.

Injury-stricken Real not fit
This team has faced numerous challenges this season in terms of injuries, something that has greatly affected their level of performance. Among the players who have already paid a visit to the team’s medical doctors are Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema, Marcelo and Raphael Varane. Out of the Saturday’s final is Varane but Ronaldo still remains a doubt. Bale had also recently recovered from injury same as Benzema whose form has drastically deteriorated. The only fit attacker in the squad is Bale who has rose to the occasion to save points for Real in absence of Ronaldo and Benzema.
The talking point so far is whether the Portuguese star will be fit for the match with recent reports casting doubts over his recovery. Ronaldo’s doctors are undoubtedly enjoying few hours of sleep to ensure their best man is back on the pitch. Imagining Real playing a final without Ronaldo and a formless Benzema against Atletico Madrid, is one of a rare open opportunity for Simeone to launch revenge.
This however looks less likely to happen since earlier this week Ronaldo and Zidane were quoted expressing their confidence of the three times World player of the year making it on time. Whether Ronaldo returns or not, he will most likely not have a comfortable game and may be forced to struggle. Similar to against Manchester City in the second leg, his return may not save Real from Atleti’s impressive display, unless we believe in miracles.

UCL Barca spell may favour Atleti
It is widely presumed that sending Barcelona out of the competition in the past decade gives a blessing of the title. Many teams have done it and went on to grab the top prize. The likes of Inter Milan, Manchester United, Chelsea and Bayern Munich are among the beneficiaries of this. In 2014, Atleti eliminated Barca in quarterfinal but slipped to a famous UCL hoodoo; no team has beaten Real to the title in the past decade apart from Barcelona.
This may sound mad because there is neither mathematical nor logical reasons behind the trend, but it does happen. Similar to retaining the title, many teams have attempted to break these spells but all end in vain.
Saturday’s action will once again bring a clash of two UCL spells. Will Barca’s blessings lift Atleti to the title or Real’s hoodoo reign once again?


Above all, Saturday’s final will be no walkover for any team, a renewed rivalry between city neighbours awaits football fans all over the globe. Even those who hate the game might just found themselves having a glimpse of what is happening in Milan. But to be precise, I see Atletico sailing through in a long night that may take more than 120 minutes of your time.

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